Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.478259 2.642929 2.818242 3.019678 3.245870 3.493366 3.786512
2025-08-03 2.226698 2.449010 2.698364 3.001893 3.365782 3.793921 4.345019
2025-08-10 2.061962 2.314437 2.607723 2.979383 3.446655 4.027674 4.827383
2025-08-17 1.930957 2.200343 2.521620 2.941588 3.489957 4.203637 5.244487
2025-08-24 1.824923 2.104859 2.445920 2.903361 3.520165 4.355622 5.640097
2025-08-31 1.753056 2.044616 2.406944 2.904861 3.597418 4.573483 6.158237
2025-09-07 1.698174 2.000952 2.384178 2.922993 3.695156 4.827001 6.770717
2025-09-14 1.624728 1.928603 2.318379 2.875734 3.692609 4.926784 7.143364
2025-09-21 1.557677 1.860806 2.254137 2.824954 3.678429 5.003781 7.485982
2025-09-28 1.494783 1.795365 2.189259 2.768239 3.649177 5.051054 7.779402
2025-10-05 1.473836 1.784436 2.197477 2.816380 3.783542 5.382557 8.694107
2025-10-12 1.456899 1.777706 2.210488 2.871445 3.932562 5.757855 9.801941
2025-10-19 1.438907 1.769293 2.221399 2.925255 4.086976 6.170772 11.146715
2025-10-26 1.400175 1.730526 2.186936 2.906821 4.117942 6.355686 12.004091
2025-11-02 1.363354 1.692897 2.152192 2.885383 4.141098 6.527603 12.891263
2025-11-09 1.324932 1.651557 2.110106 2.849512 4.135164 6.638747 13.650417
2025-11-16 1.288804 1.612216 2.069293 2.813221 4.125133 6.739557 14.423208
2025-11-23 1.265011 1.589633 2.052373 2.814645 4.183990 6.998232 15.841225
2025-11-30 1.246722 1.574252 2.045454 2.831861 4.273516 7.340582 17.769823
2025-12-07 1.213675 1.536408 2.002956 2.786983 4.239938 7.389720 18.591482
2025-12-14 1.181429 1.498866 1.959681 2.738736 4.196257 7.409102 19.313302
2025-12-21 1.149287 1.460675 1.914247 2.684815 4.137725 7.384957 19.843289
2025-12-28 1.142733 1.459876 1.926442 2.730586 4.282356 7.899011 23.407484